Sunday, August 03, 2008

Oh! Mama, Mama look there! / Your children are playing in that street again

Ok, lets go a little bit, but not too far, out on a limb here and say that I think that John McCain is going to win in November.

And not just win, but win by a margin.

Out here in the outerlands..i.e. anywhere that is not the USA there seems to be some sort of complacent belief that Obama is going to stroll in come November 4th and the world will be a better place, we’ll all learn to love America again and America will once again become a responsible global citizen..the dangerous nutters who have held it to ransom for the last decade will be sidelined.

Hell, you can even go here and toss money at it. The odds look pretty good

The world largely thought that in 2004 of course too, but its worth reminding what The Daily Mirror rather famously said the day after W. was re-elected:


Yep, dumb..and the comment still stands. Bush has been a disaster anyway you want to judge it. But how has America changed? Not much I’d say. The same people that ticked (or diebolded) GWB in 2004 are still voting, the same mentality that gung-hoed the guy that most of the rest of us were confusedly shaking our head at back in 2004 for another 4 years is still there.

The economy may be a mess, but let’s be real, for large parts of America the economy has been pretty fucked up for a long time..the 47 million without proper health care, or the 40% who hover around or below the poverty line. So gas is just under $4 a gallon…uhhh, in the rest of the developed world you can multiply that several times.

Americans are now being told they won in Iraq…hell, a million plus are dead but they are ragheads anyway, right? So yep, we won because those good ol’ boys ain’t coming back in boxes in the same numbers now…forget that at least 400 Iraqis died last month; there ain’t no power or sewage (there were both before 2003); and the teachers have all fled…we all know it was all about the oil anyway, even if the profits mostly flow through to George’s mates (and they call Indonesia corrupt? It’s a matter of scale and perception I guess).

GWB’s ratings are in the toilet of course, and historically he is one of the most unpopular presidents ever (he was also once the most popular, let’s not forget that).

And the current GOP candidate is a turkey of the first order: he’s about as ignorant of the world beyond the US borders as any candidate since, well, the current POTUS; he’s both increasingly doddery and looks increasingly unwell as the months go on; his grasp of international affairs and relationships is tenuous at best, and he seems unable to figure out exactly what he stands for beyond ‘getting tough’ and ‘staying the course’.

Reasonably he should be a goner.

But the scary thing is that despite all that he’s still polling about even with, or just behind, Obama, and there are those who are getting increasingly edgy.

So you have to ask why? It’s a no-no, you get a slap from both left and right, to say that race is an issue in the election but only a foolish person would say that it’s not a the American I sat next on the plane said "America’s not ready for a Woman or a damned Black man" and he wasn’t saying it with a concerned social voice. He wasn’t ready for or willing to entertain such, and he had a University degree and had travelled.

So, yep, race does play a huge part, as does the whole murmuring, fostered ignorance about ‘muslims’ and the ‘flag pin’. You would, you’d think, have to be resolutely stupid to buy into that crap, and one could say the same of the Swift Boating of John Kerry, but Americans bought into that in bucketloads.

The biggest union in the US recently had to tell it’s members that Obama was not a Muslim…carefully avoiding the question of so what if he was?

So that all plays a part in keeping those McCain figures high.

As does that good old fear that Bush and co used so effectively in recent years. America feels besieged, not only terror wise, but by all those threatening countries like Iran. Why are they threatening? Well no-one actually knows that bit but all the folks in DC keep on about the Iranian threat so they must be an enemy and need taking out at some stage. And China is too…reasonable people talk of the threat from China, of containing that threat, and of future wars with China. It’s the new evil empire and America needs an evil empire to tilt at.

McCain is the perfect siege president..ex-military, white, talks big, is one of us (unlike Obama) and will romp in to defend the barricades of freedom against the Soviets, Iraqis, Old Europe, North Koreans, North Vietnamese, Libyans, Iranians, Russians (they're back), Muslims, Chinese….

I hope I’m wrong but let’s not forget that Bush still has 1 in 3 who think he’s doing a heckava job. They are still dumb.


McCain seems to have figured out his real audience. These folks ain't gonna take any shit from libruhl appeasers, right? And not only will he defend them from the barbarians at the gate of freedom, but also from The Antichrist.

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Danielle said...

I'm worried too, but I'm hoping that the non-landline unpolled youth vote is going to be significantly Obama-tilted. Plus the press have an interest in making this look like a real horse-race...

Simon said...

The rise of the non-pollable voter is a phenomena I don't think the pollsters have yet worked out, so I hope you are right.

I do worry about how so many supposedly informed Americans I encounter still don't seem to refer to Obama as if he is 'one of us'.

And of course I need to apologise for the bloody typos which I will try to blame on the late night posting. Hopefully fixed...